Spain U19 5–0 Moldova U19: Result & Stats

Spain U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Moldova U19

Yarek Gasiorowski 82', 73', 48'

Kevin Sánchez 75'

Simo 34'

11/15/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Spain U1988%

×Draw9%

Moldova U193%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U19Expected goals in this matchMoldova U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.12

0.48

Spain U19

3.12

Moldova U19

0.48

Spain U19 creates 550% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

3.31

creates per match

0.33

0.63

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Spain U19

3.31

Moldova U19

0.33

allows per match

Spain U19

0.63

Moldova U19

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par

Moldova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Moldova U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw

97%

Spain U19 or Moldova U19

91%

Draw or Moldova U19

12%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+

70%

Moldova U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals

95%

Spain U19 2+ goals

81%

Spain U19 3+ goals

59%

Moldova U19 1+ goals

38%

Moldova U19 2+ goals

8%

Moldova U19 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

96%

Moldova U19 (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Moldova U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 3.31 + Moldova U19 defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 3.12

Moldova U19 attack 0.33 + Spain U19 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Spain U19 scores more

88%

level

9%

Moldova U19 scores more

3%

Spain U19 at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Simo

46'

D. Boţan← V. Lupașco

46'

D. Pleşca← C. Păscăluță

48'

Yarek Gasiorowski

52'

Y. Gasiorowski

62'

N. Sandeţchi← P. Nazari

62'

O. David← S. Petruta

69'

Chema Andrés← Dani Rodríguez

69'

Rayane Belid← Gerard Hernández

69'

Víctor Moreno← Miguel Carvalho

69'

Ș. Bîtca← D. Guşpit

73'

Yarek Gasiorowski

75'

Kevin Sánchez

79'

Aingeru Olabarrieta← Kevin Sánchez

79'

Yanis Senhadji← Siren Diao

82'

Yarek Gasiorowski

Spain

Moldova

1

5

4

3

2

6

8

▼

Guşpit

19

▼

Nazari

15

▼

Petruta

7

▼

Păscăluță

16

▼

Lupașco

1

Martín

4

Boñar

14

⚽

Simo

5

⚽3

Gasiorows

8

▼

Carvalho

6

▼

Hernández

3

Díaz

10

▼

Rodríguez

18

Canales

9

⚽

▼

Sánchez

12

▼

Diao

Manager: David Gordo

69'▲Chema Andrés←▼Dani Rodríguez

69'▲Rayane Belid←▼Gerard Hernández

69'▲Víctor Moreno←▼Miguel Carvalho

79'▲Aingeru Olabarrieta←▼Kevin Sánchez

79'▲Yanis Senhadji←▼Siren Diao

Spain U19 substitutes

16Andrés7Belid11Moreno17Olabarrieta19Senhadji13González2Koke15Domínguez20Oláiz

Manager: A. Corneencov

46'▲D. Boţan←▼V. Lupașco

46'▲D. Pleşca←▼C. Păscăluță

62'▲N. Sandeţchi←▼P. Nazari

62'▲O. David←▼S. Petruta

69'▲Ș. Bîtca←▼D. Guşpit

Moldova U19 substitutes

10Boţan9Pleşca17Sandeţchi20David11Bîtca18Mardari12Tuhar14Andreiciu13Guțu

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Spain U19 5–0 Moldova U19

Spain U19 beat Moldova U19 5-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2023.

Goals: Simo (34'), Yarek Gasiorowski (48', 73', 82'), Kevin Sánchez (75').

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni in Tbilisi.

Spain U19 vs Moldova U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Spain U19 5–0 Moldova U19