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Spain U19 vs Lithuania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Spain U19
Spain U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lithuania U19
Lithuania U19
10/8/2019UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spain U1992%
×Draw7%
Lithuania U192%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U19
3.43
Lithuania U19
0.38

Spain U19 creates 803% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

creates per match

Spain U19
2.11
Lithuania U19
0.25

allows per match

Spain U19
0.50
Lithuania U19
4.75

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par
Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–014%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (16%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw
98%
Spain U19 or Lithuania U19
93%
Draw or Lithuania U19
8%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+
77%
Lithuania U19 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals
97%
Spain U19 2+ goals
85%
Spain U19 3+ goals
64%
Lithuania U19 1+ goals
32%
Lithuania U19 2+ goals
6%
Lithuania U19 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)
98%
Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.50 · 18 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 2.11 + Lithuania U19 defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.43

Lithuania U19 attack 0.25 + Spain U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Spain U19 scores more
92%
level
7%
Lithuania U19 scores more
2%

Spain U19 at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spain U19 vs Lithuania U19

Spain U19 beat Lithuania U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on October 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.