Spain U19 2–0 Cyprus U19: Result & Stats

Spain U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cyprus U19

Siren Diao 89'

Yanis Senhadji 48'

11/18/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Spain U1980%

×Draw13%

Cyprus U196%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U19Expected goals in this matchCyprus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

0.60

Spain U19

2.62

Cyprus U19

0.60

Spain U19 creates 337% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

3.31

creates per match

0.58

0.63

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Spain U19

3.31

Cyprus U19

0.58

allows per match

Spain U19

0.63

Cyprus U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par

Cyprus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Cyprus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw

94%

Spain U19 or Cyprus U19

87%

Draw or Cyprus U19

20%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+

59%

Cyprus U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals

93%

Spain U19 2+ goals

73%

Spain U19 3+ goals

48%

Cyprus U19 1+ goals

45%

Cyprus U19 2+ goals

12%

Cyprus U19 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

93%

Cyprus U19 (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Cyprus U19 away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 3.31 + Cyprus U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.62

Cyprus U19 attack 0.58 + Spain U19 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Spain U19 scores more

80%

level

13%

Cyprus U19 scores more

6%

Spain U19 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Dani Rodríguez← Víctor Moreno

46'

Kevin Sánchez← Peio Canales

46'

Miguel Carvalho← Rayane Belid

46'

A. Neophytou← D. Juliou

48'

Yanis Senhadji

52'

P. Kattirtzis← A. Laos

69'

M. Odysseos← L. Papastylianou

72'

Siren Diao← Yanis Senhadji

83'

Gerard Hernández← Aingeru Olabarrieta

86'

I. Xydias← G. Karantonas

86'

K. Evripidou← P. Andreou

89'

Siren Diao

Spain

Cyprus

1

5

3

4

13

17

▼

Laos

6

Zachariou

16

▼

Andreou

11

▼

Papastyli

18

▼

Juliou

7

▼

Karantona

13

González

15

Domínguez

7

▼

Belid

20

Oláiz

3

Díaz

11

▼

Moreno

2

Koke

16

Andrés

18

▼

Canales

17

▼

Olabarrie

19

⚽

▼

Senhadji

Manager: David Gordo

46'▲Dani Rodríguez←▼Víctor Moreno

46'▲Kevin Sánchez←▼Peio Canales

46'▲Miguel Carvalho←▼Rayane Belid

72'▲Siren Diao←▼Yanis Senhadji

83'▲Gerard Hernández←▼Aingeru Olabarrieta

Spain U19 substitutes

10Rodríguez9Sánchez8Carvalho12Diao6Hernández1Martín4Boñar14Simo5Gasiorowski

Manager: A. Mihajlovic

46'▲A. Neophytou←▼D. Juliou

52'▲P. Kattirtzis←▼A. Laos

69'▲M. Odysseos←▼L. Papastylianou

86'▲I. Xydias←▼G. Karantonas

86'▲K. Evripidou←▼P. Andreou

Cyprus U19 substitutes

10Neophytou20Kattirtzis9Odysseos19Xydias8Evripidou2Skordis14Evangelou12Koupepidis15Giannakou

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Spain U19 2–0 Cyprus U19

Spain U19 beat Cyprus U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2023.

Goals: Yanis Senhadji (48'), Siren Diao (89').

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni in Tbilisi.

Spain U19 vs Cyprus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Spain U19 2–0 Cyprus U19