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Spain U19 vs Bulgaria U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Spain U19
Spain U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bulgaria U19
Bulgaria U19
3/21/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 2Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spain U1956%
×Draw26%
Bulgaria U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U19
1.55
Bulgaria U19
0.75

Spain U19 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

creates per match

Spain U19
2.11
Bulgaria U19
1.00

allows per match

Spain U19
0.50
Bulgaria U19
1.00

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par
Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Bulgaria U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw
82%
Spain U19 or Bulgaria U19
74%
Draw or Bulgaria U19
44%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+
30%
Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals
79%
Spain U19 2+ goals
46%
Spain U19 3+ goals
20%
Bulgaria U19 1+ goals
53%
Bulgaria U19 2+ goals
17%
Bulgaria U19 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)
76%
Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.50 · 18 matches

Bulgaria U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 2.11 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Bulgaria U19 attack 1.00 + Spain U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spain U19 scores more
56%
level
26%
Bulgaria U19 scores more
18%

Spain U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spain U19 vs Bulgaria U19

Spain U19 and Bulgaria U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on March 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor in Benidorm.