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Spain U19 vs Belgium U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Spain U19
Spain U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Belgium U19
Belgium U19
3/24/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 4Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Spain U1940%
×Draw24%
Belgium U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U19
1.55
Belgium U19
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

creates per match

Spain U19
2.11
Belgium U19
2.40

allows per match

Spain U19
0.50
Belgium U19
1.00

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par
Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw
64%
Spain U19 or Belgium U19
76%
Draw or Belgium U19
60%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+
20%
Belgium U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals
79%
Spain U19 2+ goals
46%
Spain U19 3+ goals
20%
Belgium U19 1+ goals
77%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
42%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.50 · 18 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 2.11 + Belgium U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Belgium U19 attack 2.40 + Spain U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Spain U19 scores more
40%
level
24%
Belgium U19 scores more
36%

Spain U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship: Spain U19 3–0 Belgium U19

Spain U19 beat Belgium U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on March 24, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor in Benidorm.