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Spain U19 vs Belarus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Spain U19
Spain U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Belarus U19
Belarus U19
10/13/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 2Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spain U1970%
×Draw17%
Belarus U1913%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U19
2.55
Belarus U19
1.00

Spain U19 creates 155% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

creates per match

Spain U19
2.11
Belarus U19
1.50

allows per match

Spain U19
0.50
Belarus U19
3.00

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par
Belarus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Belarus U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw
87%
Spain U19 or Belarus U19
83%
Draw or Belarus U19
30%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+
48%
Belarus U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals
92%
Spain U19 2+ goals
72%
Spain U19 3+ goals
46%
Belarus U19 1+ goals
63%
Belarus U19 2+ goals
26%
Belarus U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)
85%
Belarus U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.50 · 18 matches

Belarus U19 away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 2.11 + Belarus U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.55

Belarus U19 attack 1.50 + Spain U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Spain U19 scores more
70%
level
17%
Belarus U19 scores more
13%

Spain U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spain U19 vs Belarus U19

Spain U19 beat Belarus U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob in Basel.