Spain U19 6–0 Azerbaijan U19: Result & Stats

Spain U19

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Azerbaijan U19

11/13/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Terrain Bousbierg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Spain U1983%

×Draw11%

Azerbaijan U196%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U19Expected goals in this matchAzerbaijan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

0.72

Spain U19

3.06

Azerbaijan U19

0.72

Spain U19 creates 325% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

3.31

creates per match

0.82

0.63

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Spain U19

3.31

Azerbaijan U19

0.82

allows per match

Spain U19

0.63

Azerbaijan U19

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par

Azerbaijan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Azerbaijan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw

94%

Spain U19 or Azerbaijan U19

89%

Draw or Azerbaijan U19

17%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+

64%

Azerbaijan U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals

95%

Spain U19 2+ goals

80%

Spain U19 3+ goals

57%

Azerbaijan U19 1+ goals

51%

Azerbaijan U19 2+ goals

16%

Azerbaijan U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

93%

Azerbaijan U19 (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Azerbaijan U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 3.31 + Azerbaijan U19 defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 3.06

Azerbaijan U19 attack 0.82 + Spain U19 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Spain U19 scores more

83%

level

11%

Azerbaijan U19 scores more

6%

Spain U19 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Spain U19 6–0 Azerbaijan U19

Spain U19 beat Azerbaijan U19 6-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain Bousbierg in Bissen.

Spain U19 vs Azerbaijan U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Spain U19 6–0 Azerbaijan U19