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Spain U19 vs Australia U20 — Friendlies 2018

Spain U19
Spain U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Australia U20
Australia U20
S. Esteban 55'
J. Gaitan 45'
I. Alvarez 15'
12/18/2025FriendliesFriendlies · FriendliesFujieda soccer stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spain U1971%
×Draw17%
Australia U2012%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U19
2.50
Australia U20
0.95

Spain U19 creates 163% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Spain U19
3.00
Australia U20
1.40

allows per match

Spain U19
0.50
Australia U20
2.00

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par
Australia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Australia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw
88%
Spain U19 or Australia U20
83%
Draw or Australia U20
29%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+
48%
Australia U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals
92%
Spain U19 2+ goals
71%
Spain U19 3+ goals
45%
Australia U20 1+ goals
61%
Australia U20 2+ goals
25%
Australia U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)
85%
Australia U20 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Australia U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 3.00 + Australia U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Australia U20 attack 1.40 + Spain U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Spain U19 scores more
71%
level
17%
Australia U20 scores more
12%

Spain U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
I. Alvarez
45'
J. Gaitan
55'
S. Esteban
Spain
Australia
Francisco Gallardo León
Manager: Francisco Gallardo León
T. Morgan
Manager: T. Morgan

Match Recap: Spain U19 vs Australia U20

Spain U19 beat Australia U20 3-0 in Friendlies on December 18, 2025.

Goals: I. Alvarez (15'), J. Gaitan (45'), S. Esteban (55').

The match was played at Fujieda soccer stadium in Fujieda.