Spain U19 5–0 Albania U19: Result & Stats

Spain U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Albania U19

Victor Barberá 82'

Roger Martínez 74'

Yarek Gasiorowski 29'

Ismaël Gharbi 18'

Manuel Ángel 8'

9/24/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Axor Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Spain U1986%

×Draw10%

Albania U194%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U19Expected goals in this matchAlbania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.05

0.52

Spain U19

3.05

Albania U19

0.52

Spain U19 creates 487% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

3.31

creates per match

0.40

0.63

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Spain U19

3.31

Albania U19

0.40

allows per match

Spain U19

0.63

Albania U19

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par

Albania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Albania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw

96%

Spain U19 or Albania U19

90%

Draw or Albania U19

14%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+

68%

Albania U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals

95%

Spain U19 2+ goals

80%

Spain U19 3+ goals

57%

Albania U19 1+ goals

41%

Albania U19 2+ goals

10%

Albania U19 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

96%

Albania U19 (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Albania U19 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 3.31 + Albania U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.05

Albania U19 attack 0.40 + Spain U19 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Spain U19 scores more

86%

level

10%

Albania U19 scores more

4%

Spain U19 at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

10'

18'

23'

29'

46'

A. Tahiri← E. Muhameti

61'

F. Sulejmani← R. Toma

61'

W. Cungu← K. Shkurti

63'

Aleix Garrido← Manuel Ángel

63'

Ángel Ortiz← Fabio Blanco

66'

Z. Muca

68'

G. Kote← Z. Muça

72'

Joel Roca← Ismaël Gharbi

72'

Victor Barberá← Iker Bravo

74'

Roger Martínez

77'

Rafael Obrador← Ilias Akhomach

82'

Victor Barberá

90+1'

M. Cereni← D. Daka

Spain

Albania

1

5

4

3

2

▼

Muça

7

Kurbasha

8

▼

Muhameti

11

▼

Daka

10

▼

Shkurti

6

Azizi

9

▼

13

4

3

2

5

⚽

Gasiorows

6

⚽

Martínez

8

⚽

▼

Ángel

10

⚽

▼

Gharbi

11

▼

Akhomach

7

▼

Blanco

19

▼

Bravo

Manager: Santi

63'▲Aleix Garrido←▼Manuel Ángel

63'▲Ángel Ortiz←▼Fabio Blanco

72'▲Joel Roca←▼Ismaël Gharbi

72'▲Victor Barberá←▼Iker Bravo

77'▲Rafael Obrador←▼Ilias Akhomach

Spain U19 substitutes

16Garrido17Ortiz20Roca9Barberá14Obrador1Astralaga12Mosquera18Reque15Simo

Manager: A. Cungu

46'▲A. Tahiri←▼E. Muhameti

61'▲F. Sulejmani←▼R. Toma

61'▲W. Cungu←▼K. Shkurti

68'▲G. Kote←▼Z. Muça

90+1'▲M. Cereni←▼D. Daka

Albania U19 substitutes

19Tahiri20Sulejmani18Cungu17Kote16Cereni12Jukaj13Kurti15Nako14Kasmollari

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Spain U19 5–0 Albania U19

Spain U19 beat Albania U19 5-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 24, 2022.

Goals: Manuel Ángel (8'), Ismaël Gharbi (18'), Yarek Gasiorowski (29'), Roger Martínez (74'), Victor Barberá (82').

The match was played at Axor Arena in Bocholt.

Spain U19 vs Albania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Spain U19 5–0 Albania U19