Spain U17 W 4–0 Germany U17 W: Result & Stats

Spain U17 W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Germany U17 W

A. Galvez 69'

I. Dorado 45'

L. Arufe 23'

S. Cristobal 8'

1/9/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesAlbir Garden Resort

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U17 W58%

×Draw27%

Germany U17 W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U17 WExpected goals in this matchGermany U17 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.58

Spain U17 W

1.42

Germany U17 W

0.58

Spain U17 W creates 145% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.17

creates per match

0.67

0.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Spain U17 W

1.17

Germany U17 W

0.67

allows per match

Spain U17 W

0.50

Germany U17 W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U17 W+0.00on par

Germany U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U17 W ↓

Germany U17 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Spain U17 W or draw

85%

Spain U17 W or Germany U17 W

73%

Draw or Germany U17 W

42%

Winning margin

Spain U17 W wins by 2+

29%

Germany U17 W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Spain U17 W 1+ goals

76%

Spain U17 W 2+ goals

41%

Spain U17 W 3+ goals

17%

Germany U17 W 1+ goals

44%

Germany U17 W 2+ goals

12%

Germany U17 W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Spain U17 W (draw refunded)

79%

Germany U17 W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U17 W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Germany U17 W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U17 W attack 1.17 + Germany U17 W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Germany U17 W attack 0.67 + Spain U17 W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Spain U17 W scores more

58%

level

27%

Germany U17 W scores more

15%

Spain U17 W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Spain U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

23'

45'

69'

Spain

Germany

1

3

6

9

4

2

10

7

11

8

5

13

8

10

9

17

6

⚽

Dorado

5

Torres

20

Chacon

14

⚽

Arufe

24

Perez

4

⚽

Cristobal

Manager: Kenio Gonzalo

Spain U17 W substitutes

15Galvez

Match Recap: Spain U17 W vs Germany U17 W

Spain U17 W beat Germany U17 W 4-0 in Friendlies Women on January 9, 2025.

Goals: S. Cristobal (8'), L. Arufe (23'), I. Dorado (45'), A. Galvez (69').

The match was played at Albir Garden Resort.

Spain U17 W vs Germany U17 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Spain U17 W vs Germany U17 W