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Spain U17 W vs England U17 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Spain U17 W
Spain U17 W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
England U17 W
England U17 W
R. Dominguez 30'
9/17/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U17 W34%
×Draw32%
England U17 W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U17 W
0.92
England U17 W
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Spain U17 W
1.17
England U17 W
1.33

allows per match

Spain U17 W
0.50
England U17 W
0.67

finishing

Spain U17 W+0.00on par
England U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U17 W ↓

England U17 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Spain U17 W or draw
66%
Spain U17 W or England U17 W
68%
Draw or England U17 W
66%

Winning margin

Spain U17 W wins by 2+
12%
England U17 W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spain U17 W 1+ goals
60%
Spain U17 W 2+ goals
23%
Spain U17 W 3+ goals
7%
England U17 W 1+ goals
60%
England U17 W 2+ goals
23%
England U17 W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spain U17 W (draw refunded)
50%
England U17 W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U17 W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

England U17 W away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U17 W attack 1.17 + England U17 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

England U17 W attack 1.33 + Spain U17 W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Spain U17 W scores more
34%
level
32%
England U17 W scores more
34%

Spain U17 W at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Spain U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
R. Dominguez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spain U17 W vs England U17 W

Spain U17 W beat England U17 W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on September 17, 2025.

Goals: R. Dominguez (30').