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Spain U17 vs Ukraine U17 — Friendlies 2018

Spain U17
Spain U17
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ukraine U17
Ukraine U17
R. Tomas 73'
J. Pesquer 37' (pen)
M. Diaz 32'
A. Safonov 81' (pen)
4/21/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalMunicipal Nuestra Senora de Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U1782%
×Draw12%
Ukraine U175%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U17
2.67
Ukraine U17
0.52

Spain U17 creates 413% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Spain U17
3.00
Ukraine U17
0.33

allows per match

Spain U17
0.71
Ukraine U17
2.33

finishing

Spain U17+0.00on par
Ukraine U17+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U17 ↓

Ukraine U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Spain U17 or draw
95%
Spain U17 or Ukraine U17
88%
Draw or Ukraine U17
18%

Winning margin

Spain U17 wins by 2+
61%
Ukraine U17 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Spain U17 1+ goals
93%
Spain U17 2+ goals
74%
Spain U17 3+ goals
49%
Ukraine U17 1+ goals
41%
Ukraine U17 2+ goals
10%
Ukraine U17 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Spain U17 (draw refunded)
94%
Ukraine U17 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U17 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Ukraine U17 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U17 attack 3.00 + Ukraine U17 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Ukraine U17 attack 0.33 + Spain U17 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Spain U17 scores more
82%
level
12%
Ukraine U17 scores more
5%

Spain U17 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Spain U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
M. Diaz
37'
J. PesquerPenalty
73'
R. Tomas
81'
A. SafonovPenalty
Spain
Ukraine
Hernán Pérez
Manager: Hernán Pérez
Y. Moroz
Manager: Y. Moroz

Match Recap: Spain U17 vs Ukraine U17

Spain U17 beat Ukraine U17 4-0 in Friendlies on April 21, 2026.

Goals: M. Diaz (32'), J. Pesquer (37' pen), R. Tomas (73'), A. Safonov (81' pen).

The match was played at Municipal Nuestra Senora de Luna in Pozoblanco.