Spain U17 1–2 Portugal U17: Result & Stats

Spain U17

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Portugal U17

5/26/2022

UEFA U17 Championship · Quarter-finalsNetanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Spain U1728%

×Draw23%

Portugal U1749%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U17Expected goals in this matchPortugal U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.83

Spain U17

1.33

Portugal U17

1.83

Portugal U17 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

2.22

1.44

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Spain U17

1.67

Portugal U17

2.22

allows per match

Spain U17

1.44

Portugal U17

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U17+0.00on par

Portugal U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U17 ↓

Portugal U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Spain U17 or draw

51%

Spain U17 or Portugal U17

77%

Draw or Portugal U17

72%

Winning margin

Spain U17 wins by 2+

12%

Portugal U17 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Spain U17 1+ goals

74%

Spain U17 2+ goals

38%

Spain U17 3+ goals

15%

Portugal U17 1+ goals

84%

Portugal U17 2+ goals

54%

Portugal U17 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Spain U17 (draw refunded)

36%

Portugal U17 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Portugal U17 away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U17 attack 1.67 + Portugal U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Portugal U17 attack 2.22 + Spain U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Spain U17 scores more

28%

level

23%

Portugal U17 scores more

49%

Portugal U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Portugal U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff