Spain U17 3–0 Italy U17: Result & Stats

Spain U17

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Italy U17

C. Imga 84'

I. Mencia 62'

B. Mendoza 43'

1/22/2026

Friendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U1777%

×Draw15%

Italy U178%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U17Expected goals in this matchItaly U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.69

Spain U17

2.50

Italy U17

0.69

Spain U17 creates 262% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

0.67

0.71

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Spain U17

3.00

Italy U17

0.67

allows per match

Spain U17

0.71

Italy U17

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U17+0.00on par

Italy U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U17 ↓

Italy U17 →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Spain U17 or draw

92%

Spain U17 or Italy U17

85%

Draw or Italy U17

23%

Winning margin

Spain U17 wins by 2+

54%

Italy U17 wins by 2+

Team goals

Spain U17 1+ goals

92%

Spain U17 2+ goals

71%

Spain U17 3+ goals

45%

Italy U17 1+ goals

50%

Italy U17 2+ goals

15%

Italy U17 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Spain U17 (draw refunded)

90%

Italy U17 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Spain U17 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Italy U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Spain U17 attack 3.00 + Italy U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Italy U17 attack 0.67 + Spain U17 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Spain U17 scores more

77%

level

15%

Italy U17 scores more

Spain U17 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Spain U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

B. Mendoza

62'

I. Mencia

84'

C. Imga

Spain

Italy

Manager: Hernán Pérez

Manager: M. Favo