Spain U17 2–3 Croatia U17: Result & Stats

Spain U17

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Croatia U17

5/31/2026

UEFA U17 Championship · Group Stage - 3Rakvere Linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Spain U1734%

×Draw23%

Croatia U1742%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U17Expected goals in this matchCroatia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.72

Spain U17

1.53

Croatia U17

1.72

Croatia U17 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

2.00

1.44

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Spain U17

1.67

Croatia U17

2.00

allows per match

Spain U17

1.44

Croatia U17

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U17+0.00on par

Croatia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U17 ↓

Croatia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Spain U17 or draw

58%

Spain U17 or Croatia U17

77%

Draw or Croatia U17

66%

Winning margin

Spain U17 wins by 2+

16%

Croatia U17 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Spain U17 1+ goals

78%

Spain U17 2+ goals

45%

Spain U17 3+ goals

20%

Croatia U17 1+ goals

82%

Croatia U17 2+ goals

51%

Croatia U17 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Spain U17 (draw refunded)

45%

Croatia U17 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Croatia U17 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U17 attack 1.67 + Croatia U17 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Croatia U17 attack 2.00 + Spain U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spain U17 scores more

34%

level

23%

Croatia U17 scores more

42%

Croatia U17 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Croatia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff