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Spain U17 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Spain U17
Spain U17
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
3/23/2022UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Stadion Etno Selo Stanisići

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spain U1778%
×Draw14%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U178%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U17
2.58
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
0.69

Spain U17 creates 274% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Spain U17
3.31
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.00

allows per match

Spain U17
0.38
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.86

finishing

Spain U17+0.00on par
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U17 ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Spain U17 or draw
92%
Spain U17 or Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
86%
Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
22%

Winning margin

Spain U17 wins by 2+
56%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spain U17 1+ goals
92%
Spain U17 2+ goals
72%
Spain U17 3+ goals
47%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1+ goals
50%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 2+ goals
15%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Spain U17 (draw refunded)
91%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U17 at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.38 · 16 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U17 attack 3.31 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.58

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 attack 1.00 + Spain U17 defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Spain U17 scores more
78%
level
14%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 scores more
8%

Spain U17 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Spain U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Spain U17 4–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina U17

Spain U17 beat Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 4-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Etno Selo Stanisići in Stanisići.