Spain U16 W 0–1 France U16 W: Result & Stats

Spain U16 W

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

France U16 W

P. E. Daramola 90' (pen)

5/16/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U16 W37%

×Draw29%

France U16 W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U16 WExpected goals in this matchFrance U16 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.08

Spain U16 W

1.13

France U16 W

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

0.67

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Spain U16 W

1.25

France U16 W

0.67

allows per match

Spain U16 W

1.50

France U16 W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U16 W+0.00on par

France U16 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U16 W ↓

France U16 W →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Spain U16 W or draw

66%

Spain U16 W or France U16 W

71%

Draw or France U16 W

63%

Winning margin

Spain U16 W wins by 2+

15%

France U16 W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Spain U16 W 1+ goals

68%

Spain U16 W 2+ goals

31%

Spain U16 W 3+ goals

11%

France U16 W 1+ goals

66%

France U16 W 2+ goals

29%

France U16 W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Spain U16 W (draw refunded)

52%

France U16 W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Spain U16 W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

France U16 W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Spain U16 W attack 1.25 + France U16 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

France U16 W attack 0.67 + Spain U16 W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spain U16 W scores more

37%

level

29%

France U16 W scores more

34%

Spain U16 W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Spain U16 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

P. E. DaramolaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff