Spaeri 0–0 Merani Martvili: Result & Stats

Spaeri

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Merani Martvili

11/1/2025

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 31Spaeri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Spaeri48%

×Draw24%

Merani Martvili28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpaeriExpected goals in this matchMerani Martvili

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.25

Spaeri

1.69

Merani Martvili

1.25

Spaeri creates 35% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 83 away

1.73

creates per match

1.27

1.24

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Spaeri

1.73

Merani Martvili

1.27

allows per match

Spaeri

1.24

Merani Martvili

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spaeri+0.00on par

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spaeri ↓

Merani Martvili →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Spaeri or draw

72%

Spaeri or Merani Martvili

76%

Draw or Merani Martvili

52%

Winning margin

Spaeri wins by 2+

25%

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spaeri 1+ goals

82%

Spaeri 2+ goals

50%

Spaeri 3+ goals

24%

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

71%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

36%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Spaeri (draw refunded)

63%

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spaeri at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spaeri attack 1.73 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Spaeri defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spaeri scores more

48%

level

24%

Merani Martvili scores more

28%

Spaeri at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spaeri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

46'

56'

59'

61'

64'

Z. Golubiani← G. Tsetskhladze

64'

S. Mathenjwa← N. Chagunava

73'

A. Shamatava← L. Gadilia

75'

S. Maisuradze

81'

T. Tsalughelashvili← P. Poniava

81'

G. Tsetskhladze← L. Barabadze

87'

S. Tsulaia← Z. Sikharulia

88'

I. Arghvliani← S. Maisuradze

90+3'

T. Tsalughelashvili

90+5'

S. Jalolov← G. Gvasalia

Spaeri

Merani

1

26

29

25

17

▼

Gvasalia

3

Latsabidz

16

▼

Gadilia

33

Laghadze

10

▼

11

7

23

22

▼

20

2

14

8

▼

Maisuradz

12

▼

Barabadze

30

Basilashv

18

▼

Poniava

7

Gegiadze

11

▼

Tsetskhla

Manager: Anzor Kighuradze

64'▲Z. Golubiani←▼G. Tsetskhladze

64'▲S. Mathenjwa←▼N. Chagunava

81'▲T. Tsalughelashvili←▼P. Poniava

81'▲G. Tsetskhladze←▼L. Barabadze

88'▲I. Arghvliani←▼S. Maisuradze

Spaeri substitutes

1Putkaradze3Kachibaia5Tsalughelashvili6Chotalishvili9Tsetskhladze13Maghaldadze21Arghvliani24Golubiani40Mathenjwa

Manager: G. Khelaia

73'▲A. Shamatava←▼L. Gadilia

87'▲S. Tsulaia←▼Z. Sikharulia

90+5'▲S. Jalolov←▼G. Gvasalia

Merani Martvili substitutes

31Chachava2Jalolov13Todua14Begalishvili18Tsulaia22Khmelidze30Bolotashvili40Shamatava

Match Recap: Spaeri vs Merani Martvili

Spaeri and Merani Martvili drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Spaeri Stadium in Tbilisi.

Spaeri vs Merani Martvili — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Spaeri vs Merani Martvili