Sozopol 2–0 Svilengrad: Result & Stats

Sozopol

FT

2 – 0

Svilengrad

8/24/2019

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 4Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sozopol67%

×Draw20%

Svilengrad13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SozopolExpected goals in this matchSvilengrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.79

Sozopol

2.09

Svilengrad

0.79

Sozopol creates 165% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 26 away

2.06

creates per match

0.69

0.89

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Sozopol

2.06

Svilengrad

0.69

allows per match

Sozopol

0.89

Svilengrad

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par

Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Svilengrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw

87%

Sozopol or Svilengrad

80%

Draw or Svilengrad

33%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+

43%

Svilengrad wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals

88%

Sozopol 2+ goals

62%

Sozopol 3+ goals

34%

Svilengrad 1+ goals

55%

Svilengrad 2+ goals

19%

Svilengrad 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)

84%

Svilengrad (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Svilengrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Svilengrad defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.09

Svilengrad attack 0.69 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sozopol scores more

67%

level

20%

Svilengrad scores more

13%

Sozopol at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff