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Sozopol vs Rozova dolina — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sozopol
Sozopol
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
3/28/2026Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Sozopol58%
×Draw22%
Rozova dolina20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sozopol
1.90
Rozova dolina
1.01

Sozopol creates 88% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 136 away

creates per match

Sozopol
2.06
Rozova dolina
1.13

allows per match

Sozopol
0.89
Rozova dolina
1.74

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par
Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Rozova dolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw
80%
Sozopol or Rozova dolina
78%
Draw or Rozova dolina
42%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+
34%
Rozova dolina wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals
85%
Sozopol 2+ goals
56%
Sozopol 3+ goals
29%
Rozova dolina 1+ goals
64%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
27%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)
75%
Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Rozova dolina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Rozova dolina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.90

Rozova dolina attack 1.13 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sozopol scores more
58%
level
22%
Rozova dolina scores more
20%

Sozopol at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sozopol vs Rozova dolina

Sozopol beat Rozova dolina 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 28, 2026.