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Sozopol vs Rodopa Smolyan — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sozopol
Sozopol
FT
3 – 1
Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
8/3/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 20Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Sozopol61%
×Draw21%
Rodopa Smolyan18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sozopol
2.02
Rodopa Smolyan
1.01

Sozopol creates 100% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 120 away

creates per match

Sozopol
2.06
Rodopa Smolyan
1.14

allows per match

Sozopol
0.89
Rodopa Smolyan
1.97

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par
Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw
82%
Sozopol or Rodopa Smolyan
79%
Draw or Rodopa Smolyan
39%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+
37%
Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals
87%
Sozopol 2+ goals
60%
Sozopol 3+ goals
33%
Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
64%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
27%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)
77%
Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.02

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sozopol scores more
61%
level
21%
Rodopa Smolyan scores more
18%

Sozopol at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sozopol 3 – 1 Rodopa Smolyan

Sozopol beat Rodopa Smolyan 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sozopol.