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Sozopol vs Minyor Radnevo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sozopol
Sozopol
FT
0 – 0
Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
9/21/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 8Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sozopol51%
×Draw26%
Minyor Radnevo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sozopol
1.55
Minyor Radnevo
0.95

Sozopol creates 63% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 27 away

creates per match

Sozopol
2.06
Minyor Radnevo
1.00

allows per match

Sozopol
0.89
Minyor Radnevo
1.04

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par
Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Minyor Radnevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw
77%
Sozopol or Minyor Radnevo
74%
Draw or Minyor Radnevo
49%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+
27%
Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals
79%
Sozopol 2+ goals
46%
Sozopol 3+ goals
20%
Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
61%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
25%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)
69%
Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Minyor Radnevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Minyor Radnevo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.55

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.00 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sozopol scores more
51%
level
26%
Minyor Radnevo scores more
23%

Sozopol at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sozopol vs Minyor Radnevo

Sozopol and Minyor Radnevo drew 0-0 in Third League - Southeast on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sozopol.