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Sozopol vs Levski Krumovgrad — Second League 2018

Sozopol
Sozopol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
4/22/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 27Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sozopol38%
×Draw28%
Levski Krumovgrad34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sozopol
1.25
Levski Krumovgrad
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sozopol
1.31
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

allows per match

Sozopol
1.14
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw
66%
Sozopol or Levski Krumovgrad
72%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
62%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+
17%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals
71%
Sozopol 2+ goals
36%
Sozopol 3+ goals
13%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
69%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
32%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)
53%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 1.31 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.18 + Sozopol defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sozopol scores more
38%
level
28%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
34%

Sozopol at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Sozopol 1–1 Levski Krumovgrad

Sozopol and Levski Krumovgrad drew 1-1 in Second League on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sozopol.