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Sozopol vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sozopol
Sozopol
CANC
00:00
Karnobat
Karnobat
3/21/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 22Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Sozopol70%
×Draw18%
Karnobat12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sozopol
2.32
Karnobat
0.84

Sozopol creates 176% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 118 away

creates per match

Sozopol
2.06
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Sozopol
0.89
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw
88%
Sozopol or Karnobat
82%
Draw or Karnobat
30%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+
47%
Karnobat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals
90%
Sozopol 2+ goals
67%
Sozopol 3+ goals
40%
Karnobat 1+ goals
57%
Karnobat 2+ goals
21%
Karnobat 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)
85%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.32

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sozopol scores more
70%
level
18%
Karnobat scores more
12%

Sozopol at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sozopol face Karnobat (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast returns with Sozopol hosting Karnobat. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sozopol host Karnobat at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.