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Sozopol vs Botev Plovdiv III — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sozopol
Sozopol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
11/13/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 18Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sozopol62%
×Draw20%
Botev Plovdiv III17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sozopol
2.11
Botev Plovdiv III
1.02

Sozopol creates 107% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sozopol
2.06
Botev Plovdiv III
1.16

allows per match

Sozopol
0.89
Botev Plovdiv III
2.16

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw
83%
Sozopol or Botev Plovdiv III
80%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv III
38%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+
39%
Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals
88%
Sozopol 2+ goals
62%
Sozopol 3+ goals
35%
Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
64%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
27%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)
78%
Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.11

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sozopol scores more
62%
level
20%
Botev Plovdiv III scores more
17%

Sozopol at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sozopol 1–1 Botev Plovdiv III

Sozopol and Botev Plovdiv III drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 13, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sozopol.