Sozopol 1–2 Botev Plovdiv II: Result & Stats

Sozopol

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Botev Plovdiv II

5/19/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 36Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sozopol49%

×Draw24%

Botev Plovdiv II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SozopolExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.18

Sozopol

1.66

Botev Plovdiv II

1.18

Sozopol creates 41% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 19 away

2.06

creates per match

1.47

0.89

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sozopol

2.06

Botev Plovdiv II

1.47

allows per match

Sozopol

0.89

Botev Plovdiv II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw

73%

Sozopol or Botev Plovdiv II

76%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

51%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+

26%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals

81%

Sozopol 2+ goals

49%

Sozopol 3+ goals

23%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

69%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

33%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)

64%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.66

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sozopol scores more

49%

level

24%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

27%

Sozopol at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff