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Sozopol vs Atletik Kuklen — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sozopol
Sozopol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
10/19/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 13Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Sozopol64%
×Draw20%
Atletik Kuklen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sozopol
2.13
Atletik Kuklen
0.95

Sozopol creates 124% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 135 away

creates per match

Sozopol
2.06
Atletik Kuklen
1.00

allows per match

Sozopol
0.89
Atletik Kuklen
2.21

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par
Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Atletik Kuklen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw
84%
Sozopol or Atletik Kuklen
80%
Draw or Atletik Kuklen
36%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+
40%
Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals
88%
Sozopol 2+ goals
63%
Sozopol 3+ goals
35%
Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
61%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
25%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)
80%
Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.13

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sozopol scores more
64%
level
20%
Atletik Kuklen scores more
16%

Sozopol at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sozopol vs Atletik Kuklen

Sozopol and Atletik Kuklen drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sozopol.