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Soyaux W vs Paris Saint Germain W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Soyaux W
Soyaux W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
2/9/2020Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 15Stade Lebon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Soyaux W12%
×Draw17%
Paris Saint Germain W71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soyaux W
0.83
Paris Saint Germain W
2.35

Paris Saint Germain W creates 183% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 86 away

creates per match

Soyaux W
0.85
Paris Saint Germain W
2.62

allows per match

Soyaux W
2.09
Paris Saint Germain W
0.81

finishing

Soyaux W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soyaux W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Soyaux W or draw
29%
Soyaux W or Paris Saint Germain W
83%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
88%

Winning margin

Soyaux W wins by 2+
3%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Soyaux W 1+ goals
56%
Soyaux W 2+ goals
20%
Soyaux W 3+ goals
5%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
90%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
68%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Soyaux W (draw refunded)
14%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soyaux W at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 54 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.62, concedes 0.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soyaux W attack 0.85 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.62 + Soyaux W defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Soyaux W scores more
12%
level
17%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
71%

Paris Saint Germain W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Soyaux W vs Paris Saint Germain W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Soyaux W 3-0 in Feminine Division 1 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Lebon in Angoulême.