Soy United 0–0 Vihiga United FC: Result & Stats

Soy United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vihiga United FC

12/3/2025

Super League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Soy United56%

×Draw29%

Vihiga United FC16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Soy UnitedExpected goals in this matchVihiga United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.56

Soy United

1.33

Vihiga United FC

0.56

Soy United creates 138% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

0.89

creates per match

0.80

0.32

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Soy United

0.89

Vihiga United FC

0.80

allows per match

Soy United

0.32

Vihiga United FC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Soy United+0.00on par

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soy United ↓

Vihiga United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Soy United or draw

84%

Soy United or Vihiga United FC

71%

Draw or Vihiga United FC

44%

Winning margin

Soy United wins by 2+

27%

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Soy United 1+ goals

74%

Soy United 2+ goals

38%

Soy United 3+ goals

15%

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals

43%

Vihiga United FC 2+ goals

11%

Vihiga United FC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Soy United (draw refunded)

78%

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soy United at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.32 · 19 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soy United attack 0.89 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Soy United defence 0.32 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Soy United scores more

56%

level

29%

Vihiga United FC scores more

16%

Soy United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Soy United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff