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Southside Eagles vs St George Willawong — Queensland Premier League 2026

Southside Eagles
Southside Eagles
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
St George Willawong
St George Willawong
4/13/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 7Memorial Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Southside Eagles37%
×Draw23%
St George Willawong40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southside Eagles
1.63
St George Willawong
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 21 away

creates per match

Southside Eagles
1.58
St George Willawong
1.52

allows per match

Southside Eagles
1.87
St George Willawong
1.67

finishing

Southside Eagles+0.00on par
St George Willawong+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southside Eagles ↓

St George Willawong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Southside Eagles or draw
60%
Southside Eagles or St George Willawong
77%
Draw or St George Willawong
63%

Winning margin

Southside Eagles wins by 2+
18%
St George Willawong wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Southside Eagles 1+ goals
80%
Southside Eagles 2+ goals
48%
Southside Eagles 3+ goals
22%
St George Willawong 1+ goals
82%
St George Willawong 2+ goals
51%
St George Willawong 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)
48%
St George Willawong (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southside Eagles at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.87 · 53 matches

St George Willawong away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southside Eagles attack 1.58 + St George Willawong defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.63

St George Willawong attack 1.52 + Southside Eagles defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Southside Eagles scores more
37%
level
23%
St George Willawong scores more
40%

St George Willawong at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "St George Willawong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southside Eagles vs St George Willawong

Southside Eagles beat St George Willawong 2-0 in Queensland Premier League on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Memorial Park in Brisbane.