Southside Eagles 2–2 Rochedale Rovers

Southside Eagles

FT

2 – 2

Rochedale Rovers

3/20/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 2OldMac Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Southside Eagles27%

×Draw22%

Rochedale Rovers51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southside EaglesExpected goals in this matchRochedale Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.04

Southside Eagles

1.43

Rochedale Rovers

2.04

Rochedale Rovers creates 43% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 33 away

1.58

creates per match

2.21

1.87

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Southside Eagles

1.58

Rochedale Rovers

2.21

allows per match

Southside Eagles

1.87

Rochedale Rovers

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southside Eagles ↓

Rochedale Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Southside Eagles or draw

49%

Southside Eagles or Rochedale Rovers

78%

Draw or Rochedale Rovers

73%

Winning margin

Southside Eagles wins by 2+

12%

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Southside Eagles 1+ goals

76%

Southside Eagles 2+ goals

42%

Southside Eagles 3+ goals

17%

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals

87%

Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals

60%

Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)

34%

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southside Eagles at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.87 · 53 matches

Rochedale Rovers away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southside Eagles attack 1.58 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rochedale Rovers attack 2.21 + Southside Eagles defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Southside Eagles scores more

27%

level

22%

Rochedale Rovers scores more

51%

Rochedale Rovers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rochedale Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff