Rochedale Rovers 2–3 Southside Eagles

Rochedale Rovers

FT

2 – 3

Southside Eagles

6/26/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 13Memorial Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rochedale Rovers63%

×Draw18%

Southside Eagles19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rochedale RoversExpected goals in this matchSouthside Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.35

Rochedale Rovers

2.53

Southside Eagles

1.35

Rochedale Rovers creates 87% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 53 away

2.85

creates per match

1.26

1.44

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Rochedale Rovers

2.85

Southside Eagles

1.26

allows per match

Rochedale Rovers

1.44

Southside Eagles

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochedale Rovers ↓

Southside Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Rochedale Rovers or draw

81%

Rochedale Rovers or Southside Eagles

82%

Draw or Southside Eagles

37%

Winning margin

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+

41%

Southside Eagles wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals

92%

Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals

71%

Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals

46%

Southside Eagles 1+ goals

74%

Southside Eagles 2+ goals

39%

Southside Eagles 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)

77%

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochedale Rovers at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Southside Eagles away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochedale Rovers attack 2.85 + Southside Eagles defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.53

Southside Eagles attack 1.26 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Rochedale Rovers scores more

63%

level

18%

Southside Eagles scores more

19%

Rochedale Rovers at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Rochedale Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff