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Southside Eagles vs Moreton City II — Queensland Premier League 2026

Southside Eagles
Southside Eagles
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Moreton City II
Moreton City II
7/19/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 19Memorial Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Southside Eagles58%
×Draw18%
Moreton City II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southside Eagles
2.61
Moreton City II
1.62

Southside Eagles creates 61% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 11 away

creates per match

Southside Eagles
1.58
Moreton City II
1.36

allows per match

Southside Eagles
1.87
Moreton City II
3.64

finishing

Southside Eagles+0.00on par
Moreton City II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southside Eagles ↓

Moreton City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Southside Eagles or draw
77%
Southside Eagles or Moreton City II
82%
Draw or Moreton City II
42%

Winning margin

Southside Eagles wins by 2+
38%
Moreton City II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Southside Eagles 1+ goals
93%
Southside Eagles 2+ goals
73%
Southside Eagles 3+ goals
47%
Moreton City II 1+ goals
80%
Moreton City II 2+ goals
48%
Moreton City II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)
72%
Moreton City II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southside Eagles at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.87 · 53 matches

Moreton City II away — creates 1.36, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southside Eagles attack 1.58 + Moreton City II defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.61

Moreton City II attack 1.36 + Southside Eagles defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Southside Eagles scores more
58%
level
18%
Moreton City II scores more
23%

Southside Eagles at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Southside Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southside Eagles vs Moreton City II

Southside Eagles beat Moreton City II 5-1 in Queensland Premier League on July 19, 2024.

The match was played at Memorial Park in Brisbane.