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Southside Eagles vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland Premier League 2021

Southside Eagles
Southside Eagles
FT
1 – 2
Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
4/23/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 7Memorial Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Southside Eagles42%
×Draw20%
Magpies Crusaders38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southside Eagles
2.29
Magpies Crusaders
2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 10 away

creates per match

Southside Eagles
1.58
Magpies Crusaders
2.50

allows per match

Southside Eagles
1.87
Magpies Crusaders
3.00

finishing

Southside Eagles+0.00on par
Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southside Eagles ↓

Magpies Crusaders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Southside Eagles or draw
62%
Southside Eagles or Magpies Crusaders
80%
Draw or Magpies Crusaders
58%

Winning margin

Southside Eagles wins by 2+
24%
Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Southside Eagles 1+ goals
90%
Southside Eagles 2+ goals
66%
Southside Eagles 3+ goals
40%
Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
89%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
64%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)
52%
Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southside Eagles at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.87 · 53 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southside Eagles attack 1.58 + Magpies Crusaders defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Magpies Crusaders attack 2.50 + Southside Eagles defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Southside Eagles scores more
42%
level
20%
Magpies Crusaders scores more
38%

Southside Eagles at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Southside Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Southside Eagles 1–2 Magpies Crusaders

Magpies Crusaders beat Southside Eagles 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Memorial Park in Brisbane.