Southside Eagles vs Logan Lightning — Queensland Premier League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 44+ matches
Southside Eagles39%
Logan Lightning39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 53 home / 44 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over71
- Under29
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes71
- No29
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Southside Eagles ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Southside Eagles at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.87 · 53 matches
Logan Lightning away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Southside Eagles attack 1.58 + Logan Lightning defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.83
Logan Lightning attack 1.84 + Southside Eagles defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Southside Eagles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Southside Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Broadbeach United
Brisbane Strikers
SC Wanderers
Robina City
Ipswich
Caboolture
Redlands United
Holland Park HawksLogan Lightning
North Star
St George Willawong
CapalabaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Southside Eagles host Logan Lightning on Saturday, 21 June 2025 at 08:00. The match is part of the Queensland Premier League 2026/2027 season.
Queensland Premier League: Southside Eagles 5–4 Logan Lightning
Southside Eagles beat Logan Lightning 5-4 in Queensland Premier League on June 21, 2025.
The match was played at Memorial Park in Brisbane.