Southside Eagles 1–0 Ipswich Knights

Southside Eagles

FT

1 – 0

Ipswich Knights

4/2/2022

Queensland Premier League · Round 5Memorial Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Southside Eagles43%

×Draw21%

Ipswich Knights36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southside EaglesExpected goals in this matchIpswich Knights

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.91

Southside Eagles

2.09

Ipswich Knights

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 20 away

1.58

creates per match

1.95

1.87

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Southside Eagles

1.58

Ipswich Knights

1.95

allows per match

Southside Eagles

1.87

Ipswich Knights

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Ipswich Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southside Eagles ↓

Ipswich Knights →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Southside Eagles or draw

64%

Southside Eagles or Ipswich Knights

79%

Draw or Ipswich Knights

57%

Winning margin

Southside Eagles wins by 2+

24%

Ipswich Knights wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Southside Eagles 1+ goals

88%

Southside Eagles 2+ goals

62%

Southside Eagles 3+ goals

34%

Ipswich Knights 1+ goals

85%

Ipswich Knights 2+ goals

57%

Ipswich Knights 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)

54%

Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southside Eagles at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.87 · 53 matches

Ipswich Knights away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southside Eagles attack 1.58 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.09

Ipswich Knights attack 1.95 + Southside Eagles defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Southside Eagles scores more

43%

level

21%

Ipswich Knights scores more

36%

Southside Eagles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Southside Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff