Southside Eagles 3–2 Eastern Suburbs

Southside Eagles

FT

3 – 2

Eastern Suburbs

3/1/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 2Memorial Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Southside Eagles25%

×Draw20%

Eastern Suburbs55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Southside EaglesExpected goals in this matchEastern Suburbs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.30

Southside Eagles

1.52

Eastern Suburbs

2.30

Eastern Suburbs creates 51% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 11 away

1.58

creates per match

2.73

1.87

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Southside Eagles

1.58

Eastern Suburbs

2.73

allows per match

Southside Eagles

1.87

Eastern Suburbs

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southside Eagles ↓

Eastern Suburbs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Southside Eagles or draw

45%

Southside Eagles or Eastern Suburbs

80%

Draw or Eastern Suburbs

75%

Winning margin

Southside Eagles wins by 2+

11%

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Southside Eagles 1+ goals

78%

Southside Eagles 2+ goals

45%

Southside Eagles 3+ goals

20%

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals

90%

Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals

67%

Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)

31%

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southside Eagles at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.87 · 53 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southside Eagles attack 1.58 + Eastern Suburbs defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Eastern Suburbs attack 2.73 + Southside Eagles defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Southside Eagles scores more

25%

level

20%

Eastern Suburbs scores more

55%

Eastern Suburbs at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff