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Souths United vs SWQ Thunder — Queensland Premier League 2026

Souths United
Souths United
FT
0 – 3
SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
3/14/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 1Wakerley Park 2 - Synthetic Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Souths United30%
×Draw20%
SWQ Thunder50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Souths United
1.84
SWQ Thunder
2.38

SWQ Thunder creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 56 away

creates per match

Souths United
1.30
SWQ Thunder
1.77

allows per match

Souths United
3.00
SWQ Thunder
2.38

finishing

Souths United+0.00on par
SWQ Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Souths United ↓

SWQ Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Souths United or draw
50%
Souths United or SWQ Thunder
80%
Draw or SWQ Thunder
70%

Winning margin

Souths United wins by 2+
15%
SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Souths United 1+ goals
84%
Souths United 2+ goals
55%
Souths United 3+ goals
28%
SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
91%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
68%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Souths United (draw refunded)
38%
SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Souths United at home — creates 1.30, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

SWQ Thunder away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Souths United attack 1.30 + SWQ Thunder defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.84

SWQ Thunder attack 1.77 + Souths United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Souths United scores more
30%
level
20%
SWQ Thunder scores more
50%

SWQ Thunder at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Souths United 0–3 SWQ Thunder

SWQ Thunder beat Souths United 3-0 in Queensland Premier League on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Wakerley Park 2 - Synthetic Pitch in Brisbane.