Souths United 1–4 Ipswich Knights: Result & Stats

Souths United

FT

1 – 4

Ipswich Knights

3/26/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 3Wakerley Park 2 - Synthetic Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Souths United31%

×Draw19%

Ipswich Knights50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Souths UnitedExpected goals in this matchIpswich Knights

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

2.48

Souths United

1.95

Ipswich Knights

2.48

Ipswich Knights creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

1.30

creates per match

1.95

3.00

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Souths United

1.30

Ipswich Knights

1.95

allows per match

Souths United

3.00

Ipswich Knights

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Souths United+0.00on par

Ipswich Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Souths United ↓

Ipswich Knights →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Souths United or draw

50%

Souths United or Ipswich Knights

81%

Draw or Ipswich Knights

69%

Winning margin

Souths United wins by 2+

16%

Ipswich Knights wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Souths United 1+ goals

86%

Souths United 2+ goals

58%

Souths United 3+ goals

31%

Ipswich Knights 1+ goals

92%

Ipswich Knights 2+ goals

70%

Ipswich Knights 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Souths United (draw refunded)

38%

Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Souths United at home — creates 1.30, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

Ipswich Knights away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Souths United attack 1.30 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.95

Ipswich Knights attack 1.95 + Souths United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Souths United scores more

31%

level

19%

Ipswich Knights scores more

50%

Ipswich Knights at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ipswich Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff