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Souths United vs Holland Park Hawks — League #191 2026

Souths United
Souths United
FT
3 – 3
Holland Park Hawks
Holland Park Hawks
3/11/2017League #191League #191 · Round 4Wakerley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Souths United28%
×Draw18%
Holland Park Hawks53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Souths United
2.04
Holland Park Hawks
2.79

Holland Park Hawks creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Souths United
1.33
Holland Park Hawks
1.75

allows per match

Souths United
3.83
Holland Park Hawks
2.75

finishing

Souths United+0.00on par
Holland Park Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Souths United ↓

Holland Park Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Souths United or draw
47%
Souths United or Holland Park Hawks
82%
Draw or Holland Park Hawks
72%

Winning margin

Souths United wins by 2+
15%
Holland Park Hawks wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Souths United 1+ goals
87%
Souths United 2+ goals
60%
Souths United 3+ goals
33%
Holland Park Hawks 1+ goals
94%
Holland Park Hawks 2+ goals
76%
Holland Park Hawks 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Souths United (draw refunded)
35%
Holland Park Hawks (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Souths United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

Holland Park Hawks away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Souths United attack 1.33 + Holland Park Hawks defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Holland Park Hawks attack 1.75 + Souths United defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Souths United scores more
28%
level
18%
Holland Park Hawks scores more
53%

Holland Park Hawks at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Holland Park Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Souths United vs Holland Park Hawks

Souths United and Holland Park Hawks drew 3-3 in League #191 on March 11, 2017.

The match was played at Wakerley Park in Brisbane.