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Southport vs Spennymoor Town — League #50 2026

Southport
Southport
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town
3/10/2026League #50League #50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Southport36%
×Draw23%
Spennymoor Town41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southport
1.54
Spennymoor Town
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 3 away

creates per match

Southport
1.42
Spennymoor Town
1.67

allows per match

Southport
1.63
Spennymoor Town
1.67

finishing

Southport+0.00on par
Spennymoor Town+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southport ↓

Spennymoor Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Southport or draw
59%
Southport or Spennymoor Town
77%
Draw or Spennymoor Town
64%

Winning margin

Southport wins by 2+
17%
Spennymoor Town wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Southport 1+ goals
79%
Southport 2+ goals
45%
Southport 3+ goals
20%
Spennymoor Town 1+ goals
81%
Spennymoor Town 2+ goals
49%
Spennymoor Town 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Southport (draw refunded)
47%
Spennymoor Town (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southport at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

Spennymoor Town away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southport attack 1.42 + Spennymoor Town defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Spennymoor Town attack 1.67 + Southport defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Southport scores more
36%
level
23%
Spennymoor Town scores more
41%

Spennymoor Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spennymoor Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southport vs Spennymoor Town

Southport beat Spennymoor Town 2-0 in League #50 on March 10, 2026.