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Southport vs King's Lynn Town — League #50 2026

Southport
Southport
Preview
15:00
King's Lynn Town
King's Lynn Town
2/20/2027League #50League #50 · National League North - 34
Big match
46%
King's Lynn Town
model favours
29%25%46%

Southport score first in only 16% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Southport29%
×Draw25%
King's Lynn Town46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southport
1.21
King's Lynn Town
1.60

King's Lynn Town creates 32% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

creates per match

Southport
1.42
King's Lynn Town
1.57

allows per match

Southport
1.63
King's Lynn Town
1.00

finishing

Southport+0.00on par
King's Lynn Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southport ↓

King's Lynn Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Southport or draw
54%
Southport or King's Lynn Town
75%
Draw or King's Lynn Town
71%

Winning margin

Southport wins by 2+
12%
King's Lynn Town wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Southport 1+ goals
70%
Southport 2+ goals
34%
Southport 3+ goals
12%
King's Lynn Town 1+ goals
80%
King's Lynn Town 2+ goals
47%
King's Lynn Town 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Southport (draw refunded)
38%
King's Lynn Town (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southport at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

King's Lynn Town away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southport attack 1.42 + King's Lynn Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

King's Lynn Town attack 1.57 + Southport defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Southport scores more
29%
level
25%
King's Lynn Town scores more
46%

King's Lynn Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "King's Lynn Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 74% of Southport’s matches
  • Southport win just 21% against the top half (vs 62% against the bottom)
  • 35% of Southport’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 20% of Southport’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Southport
LWLLL
Town
LWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Southport face King's Lynn Town (League #50)

League #50 returns with Southport hosting King's Lynn Town. Match starts February 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.