Southport vs King's Lynn Town — League #50 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
Southport29%
King's Lynn Town46%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
King's Lynn Town creates 32% more chances
Season form · 38 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Southport ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Southport at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches
King's Lynn Town away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Southport attack 1.42 + King's Lynn Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21
King's Lynn Town attack 1.57 + Southport defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
King's Lynn Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "King's Lynn Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
South ShieldsSouthport
Macclesfield
Kidderminster Harriers
AFC Fylde
Darlington 1883
Buxton
Oxford CityKing's Lynn Town
AFC Telford United
Spennymoor Town
Leamington
Bedford Town
Chorley
Marine
Chester
Peterborough Sports
Hereford
Merthyr Town
Curzon Ashton
Scarborough Athletic
Alfreton Town
Radcliffe
Worksop TownIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Southport host King's Lynn Town on Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the League #50 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Southport vs King's Lynn Town
King's Lynn Town beat Southport 2-0 in League #50 on March 8, 2025.
Goals: G. Taylor (33'), J. Hmami (36').
The match was played at The BIG HELP Stadium in Southport, Merseyside.