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Southport vs Fleetwood Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Southport
Southport
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Southport18%
×Draw20%
Fleetwood Town62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southport
1.08
Fleetwood Town
2.17

Fleetwood Town creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Southport
1.33
Fleetwood Town
1.67

allows per match

Southport
2.67
Fleetwood Town
0.83

finishing

Southport+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southport ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Southport or draw
38%
Southport or Fleetwood Town
80%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
82%

Winning margin

Southport wins by 2+
7%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Southport 1+ goals
66%
Southport 2+ goals
29%
Southport 3+ goals
10%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
89%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
64%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Southport (draw refunded)
23%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southport at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southport attack 1.33 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Fleetwood Town attack 1.67 + Southport defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Southport scores more
18%
level
20%
Fleetwood Town scores more
62%

Fleetwood Town at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Southport
Fleetwood
Jim Bentley
Manager: Jim Bentley
Matthew Lawlor
Manager: Matthew Lawlor

Match Recap: Southport vs Fleetwood Town

Fleetwood Town beat Southport 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.