Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Southport vs Darlington 1883 — League #50 2026

Southport
Southport
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Darlington 1883
Darlington 1883
J. Slew 90'
C. Sze 14' (pen)
C. Main 63'
T. Platt 6'
2/7/2026League #50League #50 · North - 31Haig Avenue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Southport39%
×Draw26%
Darlington 188335%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southport
1.38
Darlington 1883
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 3 away

creates per match

Southport
1.42
Darlington 1883
1.00

allows per match

Southport
1.63
Darlington 1883
1.33

finishing

Southport+0.00on par
Darlington 1883+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southport ↓

Darlington 1883 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Southport or draw
65%
Southport or Darlington 1883
74%
Draw or Darlington 1883
61%

Winning margin

Southport wins by 2+
18%
Darlington 1883 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Southport 1+ goals
75%
Southport 2+ goals
40%
Southport 3+ goals
16%
Darlington 1883 1+ goals
73%
Darlington 1883 2+ goals
38%
Darlington 1883 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Southport (draw refunded)
52%
Darlington 1883 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southport at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

Darlington 1883 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southport attack 1.42 + Darlington 1883 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Darlington 1883 attack 1.00 + Southport defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Southport scores more
39%
level
26%
Darlington 1883 scores more
35%

Southport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Southport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
T. Platt
14'
C. SzePenalty
63'
C. Main
90'
J. Slew

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southport vs Darlington 1883

Southport and Darlington 1883 drew 2-2 in League #50 on February 7, 2026.

Goals: T. Platt (6'), C. Sze (14' pen), C. Main (63'), J. Slew (90').

The match was played at Haig Avenue in Southport, Merseyside.