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Southport vs Buxton — League #50 2026

Southport
Southport
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Buxton
Buxton
2/17/2026League #50League #50 · North - 29Haig Avenue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Southport35%
×Draw24%
Buxton41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southport
1.51
Buxton
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Southport
1.42
Buxton
1.67

allows per match

Southport
1.63
Buxton
1.60

finishing

Southport+0.00on par
Buxton+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southport ↓

Buxton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Southport or draw
59%
Southport or Buxton
76%
Draw or Buxton
65%

Winning margin

Southport wins by 2+
17%
Buxton wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Southport 1+ goals
78%
Southport 2+ goals
44%
Southport 3+ goals
19%
Buxton 1+ goals
81%
Buxton 2+ goals
49%
Buxton 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Southport (draw refunded)
46%
Buxton (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southport at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

Buxton away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southport attack 1.42 + Buxton defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.51

Buxton attack 1.67 + Southport defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Southport scores more
35%
level
24%
Buxton scores more
41%

Buxton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Buxton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Southport vs Buxton

Southport and Buxton drew 0-0 in League #50 on February 17, 2026.

The match was played at Haig Avenue in Southport, Merseyside.