Southport 2–1 Alfreton Town: Result & Stats

Southport

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Alfreton Town

M. McKenzie 79'

A. Gnahoua 47'

L. Salmon 15'

3/17/2026

League #50 · North - 36Haig Avenue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Southport47%

×Draw23%

Alfreton Town30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthportExpected goals in this matchAlfreton Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.44

Southport

1.83

Alfreton Town

1.44

Southport creates 27% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 8 away

1.42

creates per match

1.25

1.63

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Southport

1.42

Alfreton Town

1.25

allows per match

Southport

1.63

Alfreton Town

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southport+0.00on par

Alfreton Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southport ↓

Alfreton Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Southport or draw

70%

Southport or Alfreton Town

77%

Draw or Alfreton Town

53%

Winning margin

Southport wins by 2+

26%

Alfreton Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Southport 1+ goals

84%

Southport 2+ goals

54%

Southport 3+ goals

28%

Alfreton Town 1+ goals

76%

Alfreton Town 2+ goals

42%

Alfreton Town 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Southport (draw refunded)

61%

Alfreton Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southport at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

Alfreton Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southport attack 1.42 + Alfreton Town defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.83

Alfreton Town attack 1.25 + Southport defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Southport scores more

47%

level

23%

Alfreton Town scores more

30%

Southport at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Southport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

L. Salmon

47'

A. Gnahoua

79'

M. McKenzie

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff