Southport 2–0 AFC Telford United: Result & Stats

Southport

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Telford United

B. Collins 85'

J. Slew 15'

4/25/2026

League #50 · North - 46Haig Avenue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Southport43%

×Draw25%

AFC Telford United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthportExpected goals in this matchAFC Telford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.31

Southport

1.54

AFC Telford United

1.31

Southport creates 18% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 3 away

1.42

creates per match

1.00

1.63

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Southport

1.42

AFC Telford United

1.00

allows per match

Southport

1.63

AFC Telford United

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southport+0.00on par

AFC Telford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southport ↓

AFC Telford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Southport or draw

68%

Southport or AFC Telford United

75%

Draw or AFC Telford United

57%

Winning margin

Southport wins by 2+

21%

AFC Telford United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Southport 1+ goals

79%

Southport 2+ goals

45%

Southport 3+ goals

20%

AFC Telford United 1+ goals

73%

AFC Telford United 2+ goals

38%

AFC Telford United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Southport (draw refunded)

57%

AFC Telford United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southport at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

AFC Telford United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southport attack 1.42 + AFC Telford United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

AFC Telford United attack 1.00 + Southport defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Southport scores more

43%

level

25%

AFC Telford United scores more

32%

Southport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Southport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

J. Slew

85'

B. Collins

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff