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Southern Soccer Academy vs Peachtree City — USL League Two 2018

Southern Soccer Academy
Southern Soccer Academy
PST
23:30
Peachtree City
Peachtree City
6/1/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 18North Paulding High School (Dallas, Georgia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Southern Soccer Academy52%
×Draw23%
Peachtree City25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southern Soccer Academy
1.86
Peachtree City
1.21

Southern Soccer Academy creates 54% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

creates per match

Southern Soccer Academy
1.57
Peachtree City
0.90

allows per match

Southern Soccer Academy
1.51
Peachtree City
2.15

finishing

Southern Soccer Academy+0.00on par
Peachtree City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southern Soccer Academy ↓

Peachtree City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Southern Soccer Academy or draw
75%
Southern Soccer Academy or Peachtree City
77%
Draw or Peachtree City
48%

Winning margin

Southern Soccer Academy wins by 2+
30%
Peachtree City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Southern Soccer Academy 1+ goals
84%
Southern Soccer Academy 2+ goals
55%
Southern Soccer Academy 3+ goals
28%
Peachtree City 1+ goals
70%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
34%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Southern Soccer Academy (draw refunded)
68%
Peachtree City (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southern Soccer Academy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Peachtree City away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southern Soccer Academy attack 1.57 + Peachtree City defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.86

Peachtree City attack 0.90 + Southern Soccer Academy defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Southern Soccer Academy scores more
52%
level
23%
Peachtree City scores more
25%

Southern Soccer Academy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Southern Soccer Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Southern Soccer Academy host Peachtree City

June 1, 2020: Southern Soccer Academy take on Peachtree City in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Southern Soccer Academy host Peachtree City at North Paulding High School (Dallas, Georgia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.