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Peachtree City vs Southern Soccer Academy — USL League Two 2018

Peachtree City
Peachtree City
FT
2 – 0
Southern Soccer Academy
Southern Soccer Academy
7/2/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 42Peachtree City MOBA Soccer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peachtree City50%
×Draw22%
Southern Soccer Academy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peachtree City
2.02
Southern Soccer Academy
1.49

Peachtree City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 37 away

creates per match

Peachtree City
2.19
Southern Soccer Academy
1.35

allows per match

Peachtree City
1.63
Southern Soccer Academy
1.86

finishing

Peachtree City+0.00on par
Southern Soccer Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peachtree City ↓

Southern Soccer Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Peachtree City or draw
71%
Peachtree City or Southern Soccer Academy
78%
Draw or Southern Soccer Academy
50%

Winning margin

Peachtree City wins by 2+
29%
Southern Soccer Academy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Peachtree City 1+ goals
87%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
60%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
33%
Southern Soccer Academy 1+ goals
77%
Southern Soccer Academy 2+ goals
44%
Southern Soccer Academy 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Peachtree City (draw refunded)
64%
Southern Soccer Academy (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peachtree City at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Southern Soccer Academy away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peachtree City attack 2.19 + Southern Soccer Academy defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.02

Southern Soccer Academy attack 1.35 + Peachtree City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Peachtree City scores more
50%
level
22%
Southern Soccer Academy scores more
29%

Peachtree City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Peachtree City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Peachtree City 2–0 Southern Soccer Academy

Peachtree City beat Southern Soccer Academy 2-0 in USL League Two on July 2, 2021.

The match was played at Peachtree City MOBA Soccer in Peachtree City, GA.